Buy gold? Now with the war on Iran (not that I buy the Trump narrative that the US will be any safer and hence we had to attack.. again) perhaps we are one step closer to a downturn.. maybe Democrats would be wise the plaster the cost for the war(s) to voters and highlight how many Americans could have benefited from this wasted taxpayer funded war..
And Yes I do worry a lot about the bubble bursting.. too many people I know gamble on sports, crypto and the stock market.. It won’t end well but I can’t tell you when..
food is by far my greatest daily expense. but why, when there is land and a body and mind to grow our own? because we’ve been told and sold a bill of empty assets, reducing real tangible things to low worth and elevating empty things with propped up worth. roots are real. blooms come and go. the narrators know this.
Are you aware of the cliffhanger created by the opening lines of today's post?
"The photograph below, Desperate Man, was prominent on our bedroom wall and every time I looked at it, I’d feel like seizing my own hair."
When and why did this upsetting artwork end up in your bedroom? When and why did you decide to take it down? Did Debbie play her usual salutary role in this decision?
Also, because of my long-ago art school background, it's technically a print rather than a photograph.
We liked it (by Vik Muniz) until it became too true to life. We removed it soon after the crash! in my more irrational moments I thought the art had caused it.
I am going to have to get serious and watch this show! Next week in class we talk about trust law and fiduciary responsibilities around investing. I always start the class with a description of the South Sea bubble and the financial crisis that ensued. It's my way of getting into narratives around investing and how rules follow. This time maybe we will talk about other bubbles as well!
And good luck to us all indeed 😬, it is all troubling, for sure.
Such an interesting read David, thanks. 120% of GDP!!! Wow!! Coming from the UK and not working in finance, I recall the stomach churning of world financial bubbles bursting each time and what they meant to us as a young family, especially with my husband being self employed in the building industry and watching mortgage interest rates rise to 15% overnight having literally just invested in a bigger home. I was lucky to keep my job both times when many colleagues lost theirs and then sadly found themselves with negative equity in their little boxes on the hills. But our whole lives we had always demonstrated prudence and never overstretched to buy a home, took risks, or wasted money and we thought we had passed that on to our two children. Our daughter is now safe as a rock, well as rocks can be. Sadly the photo of Rishi was our son. That photo was the thing that made my stomach churn the most. I wish everyone in the US and the World the very, very best and I just say please hold on. 🧡
I remember my Economics teacher saying the stock market was no different to a casino. When i started teaching, I had my students play a simulation called Stockpiler, in which they had to buy and share virtual shares. We all pored over the FT and The Economist religiously each week, to help identify what was likely to go up, and what down. But the students who selected shares at random did just as well as those who studied the market. The key point I was able to make was that while my teacher was right, what really mattered was not what the market was doing, but what most people thought it MIGHT do. That is, what was important was, as you say, the narrative.
yes.classic Jm Keynes about the beauty contest winner. not the most beautiful but the contestant everyone else thought was the most beautiful. Thanks Terry.
While a close DNA relation (youngest brother) of the author, I am (slightly) less of a worrywart.I do not think that the market is ever *wrong*. Oversold and undersold seem to me, irrelevant ideas or postures. Due for a correction? Yes. A recession? Unlikely-ish. (Maybe after midterms?) China invades Taiwan? Nope. (Taiwan is studying Ukraine and building a fortress, I have read and like to think.) I also could not get into INDUSTRY. Mamet is the mother of Sorkin. And Down and Kay (head writers for INDUSTRY) are, IMO, not on that tree. As well, I think that AI will settle into a Goldilocks zone for a decade or so, before the expensive brown banana hits the fan. Considering American OPTIMISM these past 250 years, relatively few bubbles: Great Depression, dot com, US housing. One every long lifetime? AND for the record 17th C. Tulips are way prettier than bananas. With love for our author, Daniel Roberts.
The most telling aspect of this article is that most of the country's "wealth" is held by the top 10%. So an asset value bust would affect the top 10% disproportionately (and I reckon most of the readers of this Substack fall in this category). So, yes, it's a concern and one I addressed earlier this year by changing my allocation (we have enough- and pigs get slaughtered). The second part of this is that the top 10% do most of the spending and much of that is discretionary (or at least would be regarded as so by the other 90%). So I'm grateful that if the market went down by half, we would not be eating cat food in our dotage-to the extent that man plans and God laughs. I'm much more concerned re our social climate and our present leadership- it's a toxic mix that affects all of us.
He made off with all the money!! Sorry,corny joke. I couldn't resist. I feel sorry for that man,maybe wrongly,I think he has left us now. He must have got caught up in a vortex of losses and every attempt made it worse but then if he'd stopped digging and enjoying the high life ....who knows? Having responsibility for other peoples welfare in all sorts of ways is something to take seriously be that health,or wealth. And money is never 'just money' or 'only money' so much emotion is bound up with money and our future shelter and care is dependent on money. As someone who loans a friend money sometimes (never out of my depth),it's 'only money' when requested but not so casual at payback time! Things are only worth what someone else is prepared to pay,even the labour of our hands and muscles which is why it's a good idea to get unionised up. My late Mum enjoyed watching Antiques Roadshow,as I do,but she was always deeply cynical about the valuations. It's worth £4K says the expert. Only if the right person is in the auction room or searching online. It was worth £8K twenty years ago when it had a moment of high fashion. In ten years time it might be again. I've only ever had a fleeting acquaintance with money. They say it talks. It says to me,"hi + goodbye,I gotta go,things to do,busy,busy,busy..." and it's off!!! I listened so I could work in my kitchen too. You have a mellow pleasant voice. This is my weekly thought /ethics challenge. That tv show would give me nightmares. Thank goodness I trashed my tv 3 years ago. Actually I gave it away to a friend. DEFUND THE BBC!
hanks Jane. Did you ever read the Roald Dahl short story about the antique dealer. Your comment reminded me of it. Link below. it's one of my favorites.
I thought Marisa Abela was also great as Amy Winehouse
Buy gold? Now with the war on Iran (not that I buy the Trump narrative that the US will be any safer and hence we had to attack.. again) perhaps we are one step closer to a downturn.. maybe Democrats would be wise the plaster the cost for the war(s) to voters and highlight how many Americans could have benefited from this wasted taxpayer funded war..
And Yes I do worry a lot about the bubble bursting.. too many people I know gamble on sports, crypto and the stock market.. It won’t end well but I can’t tell you when..
food is by far my greatest daily expense. but why, when there is land and a body and mind to grow our own? because we’ve been told and sold a bill of empty assets, reducing real tangible things to low worth and elevating empty things with propped up worth. roots are real. blooms come and go. the narrators know this.
Someone asked me what’s the scariest movie I’ve ever seen and I said “The Big Short”. You had to live it.
Are you aware of the cliffhanger created by the opening lines of today's post?
"The photograph below, Desperate Man, was prominent on our bedroom wall and every time I looked at it, I’d feel like seizing my own hair."
When and why did this upsetting artwork end up in your bedroom? When and why did you decide to take it down? Did Debbie play her usual salutary role in this decision?
Also, because of my long-ago art school background, it's technically a print rather than a photograph.
I was wondering about that printer too. Esp in the bedroom!
Almost as bad as The Scream!
Kathleen, Carissa, and Jane,
We liked it (by Vik Muniz) until it became too true to life. We removed it soon after the crash! in my more irrational moments I thought the art had caused it.
air, water, land, metals, gems, and art. always.
"No one should root for a downturn." Instead, we must work for a U-turn before the crash
Love the U turn. Or an about face?
The Parable of the Prodigal Son suggests that U-turns seldom happen before crashes
I so identify with the older brother. He doesn't want to inherit the Freaking Farm he's worked all his dreary life on. He wants an effing party too!
We tried hard to get into Industry. We have a 3 episode rule. It didn’t click. I thought it was just the young people who enjoyed the show. 😉
My dad’s hobby is the stock market. He always knows when to get out. He sold everything in July 2008.
The first season is not very good. Seasons 3 and 4 are good, Season 2 in the middle.
Good to know! Thx.
I am going to have to get serious and watch this show! Next week in class we talk about trust law and fiduciary responsibilities around investing. I always start the class with a description of the South Sea bubble and the financial crisis that ensued. It's my way of getting into narratives around investing and how rules follow. This time maybe we will talk about other bubbles as well!
And good luck to us all indeed 😬, it is all troubling, for sure.
Thanks Allison!
Such an interesting read David, thanks. 120% of GDP!!! Wow!! Coming from the UK and not working in finance, I recall the stomach churning of world financial bubbles bursting each time and what they meant to us as a young family, especially with my husband being self employed in the building industry and watching mortgage interest rates rise to 15% overnight having literally just invested in a bigger home. I was lucky to keep my job both times when many colleagues lost theirs and then sadly found themselves with negative equity in their little boxes on the hills. But our whole lives we had always demonstrated prudence and never overstretched to buy a home, took risks, or wasted money and we thought we had passed that on to our two children. Our daughter is now safe as a rock, well as rocks can be. Sadly the photo of Rishi was our son. That photo was the thing that made my stomach churn the most. I wish everyone in the US and the World the very, very best and I just say please hold on. 🧡
Thanks Sally and I really hope the risk does not hit or if it does it won't be as bad as I think it might.
Sorry if the picture of Rishi was upsetting. He is a very upsetting character in the show.
Thanks David. You weren’t to know. I don’t think I’ll be watching it somehow though. Gambling destroys so many lives sadly.
I remember my Economics teacher saying the stock market was no different to a casino. When i started teaching, I had my students play a simulation called Stockpiler, in which they had to buy and share virtual shares. We all pored over the FT and The Economist religiously each week, to help identify what was likely to go up, and what down. But the students who selected shares at random did just as well as those who studied the market. The key point I was able to make was that while my teacher was right, what really mattered was not what the market was doing, but what most people thought it MIGHT do. That is, what was important was, as you say, the narrative.
yes.classic Jm Keynes about the beauty contest winner. not the most beautiful but the contestant everyone else thought was the most beautiful. Thanks Terry.
While a close DNA relation (youngest brother) of the author, I am (slightly) less of a worrywart.I do not think that the market is ever *wrong*. Oversold and undersold seem to me, irrelevant ideas or postures. Due for a correction? Yes. A recession? Unlikely-ish. (Maybe after midterms?) China invades Taiwan? Nope. (Taiwan is studying Ukraine and building a fortress, I have read and like to think.) I also could not get into INDUSTRY. Mamet is the mother of Sorkin. And Down and Kay (head writers for INDUSTRY) are, IMO, not on that tree. As well, I think that AI will settle into a Goldilocks zone for a decade or so, before the expensive brown banana hits the fan. Considering American OPTIMISM these past 250 years, relatively few bubbles: Great Depression, dot com, US housing. One every long lifetime? AND for the record 17th C. Tulips are way prettier than bananas. With love for our author, Daniel Roberts.
I won't be happy if there's a crash.
The most telling aspect of this article is that most of the country's "wealth" is held by the top 10%. So an asset value bust would affect the top 10% disproportionately (and I reckon most of the readers of this Substack fall in this category). So, yes, it's a concern and one I addressed earlier this year by changing my allocation (we have enough- and pigs get slaughtered). The second part of this is that the top 10% do most of the spending and much of that is discretionary (or at least would be regarded as so by the other 90%). So I'm grateful that if the market went down by half, we would not be eating cat food in our dotage-to the extent that man plans and God laughs. I'm much more concerned re our social climate and our present leadership- it's a toxic mix that affects all of us.
He made off with all the money!! Sorry,corny joke. I couldn't resist. I feel sorry for that man,maybe wrongly,I think he has left us now. He must have got caught up in a vortex of losses and every attempt made it worse but then if he'd stopped digging and enjoying the high life ....who knows? Having responsibility for other peoples welfare in all sorts of ways is something to take seriously be that health,or wealth. And money is never 'just money' or 'only money' so much emotion is bound up with money and our future shelter and care is dependent on money. As someone who loans a friend money sometimes (never out of my depth),it's 'only money' when requested but not so casual at payback time! Things are only worth what someone else is prepared to pay,even the labour of our hands and muscles which is why it's a good idea to get unionised up. My late Mum enjoyed watching Antiques Roadshow,as I do,but she was always deeply cynical about the valuations. It's worth £4K says the expert. Only if the right person is in the auction room or searching online. It was worth £8K twenty years ago when it had a moment of high fashion. In ten years time it might be again. I've only ever had a fleeting acquaintance with money. They say it talks. It says to me,"hi + goodbye,I gotta go,things to do,busy,busy,busy..." and it's off!!! I listened so I could work in my kitchen too. You have a mellow pleasant voice. This is my weekly thought /ethics challenge. That tv show would give me nightmares. Thank goodness I trashed my tv 3 years ago. Actually I gave it away to a friend. DEFUND THE BBC!
hanks Jane. Did you ever read the Roald Dahl short story about the antique dealer. Your comment reminded me of it. Link below. it's one of my favorites.
https://loveliterature.yolasite.com/resources/Parsons%20Pleasure%20%20-%20Roald%20Dahl.pdf
I've just read this story,thank you for the link. Oh what an ending. Both funny and heartbreaking!
Thanks for an informative and interesting column.