Why I’m Optimistic About Climate Change

Around 2010, my son asked me for suggestions of world heroes to nominate for a prestigious school contest. I had just read the obituary of a remarkably heroic man whose name I’d never heard before. His name was Norman Borlaug, and I was sure I was giving my son a brilliant, “out of the box” suggestion. But, to my son’s dismay, it turned out that the judges in the contest had never heard of Norman Borlaug either and the nomination was summarily dismissed.

Norman Borlaug

Norman Borlaug was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 1970 for his leading role in the Green Revolution in food production. Borlaug’s work is credited with saving the lives of many hundreds of millions of people from famine. Borlaug experimented with combining different genetic strains of grain and other staples until he found the combinations most resistant to disease and other vulnerabilities. It was painstaking work that required much time and great patience as he iterated strains again and again, making them stronger and stronger. Borlaug was no ivory tower scientist; he spent a great deal of his time working on site in the fields, first in Mexico and then in India and Pakistan.

A 1997 article on Borlaug in the Atlantic by Gregg Easterbrook was titled “The Forgotten Benefactor of Humanity.” From Easterbrook’s terrific article:

“[Borlaug] received the Nobel Peace Prize in 1970, primarily for his work in reversing the food shortages that haunted India and Pakistan in the 1960s.” 

“The form of agriculture that Borlaug preache[d] may have prevented a billion deaths.”

“In 1950 the world produced 692 million tons of grain for 2.2 billion people; by 1992 production was 1.9 billion tons for 5.6 billion people—2.8 times the grain for 2.2 times the population.” 

“The world's 1950 grain output of 692 million tons came from 1.7 billion acres of cropland, the 1992 output of 1.9 billion tons from 1.73 billion acres -- a 170 percent increase from one percent more land.”

“The Population Bomb”

In 1968, two years before Borlaug’s Nobel Prize, Paul Ehrlich published a book called “The Population Bomb,” now often cited as a model of poor prediction, thanks in no small part to Norman Borlaug’s Green Revolution breakthrough. The thesis of Ehrlich’s book is summarized by its opening two sentences.

"The battle to feed all of humanity is over. In the 1970s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now.”

It was perhaps not wrong of Ehrlich to sound an alarm about food insufficiency. It was perhaps understandable that he wanted to sell a lot of copies of his book. and he knew that sales would be higher the more his predictions were terrifying, unequivocal, and just a few short years away,

To be fair to Ehrlich, as he was writing, he was no doubt unaware of Norman Borlaug toiling in the fields of Mexico inventing what would become known as “Dwarf Wheat,” which would render Ehrlich’s predictions so wrong so ­­­very quickly.

Climate Change

I believe that climate change is an existential risk, and that the many alarms that have been raised about it have a valuable purpose. They have mobilized many brilliant people and a great deal of money, both private and public, to try to address and mitigate this risk. Unlike Ehrlich who was a somewhat lonely “doomster,” there are countless groups and organizations devoted to the threat of climate change, including the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (“IPCC”). The IPCC and other groups have done phenomenally comprehensive work in laying out in great detail various climate scenarios; for example, how fast and how high temperatures might rise, depending on what mitigation actions the world takes. They have also detailed what the harmful effects of each scenario are likely to be.  

I disclaim and deny any expertise on climate change. But when I consider the example of Norman Borlaug, I am optimistic.  I think of all the Borlaug types and their supporters around the world who are investigating solutions to limit and perhaps even reverse global warming. They are incentivized by financial rewards, a deep concern over the earth’s future, and the immense intellectual challenge of addressing an incredibly complex risk.

I am grateful to everyone working on climate change, and I wouldn’t bet against them finding solutions that work to avert the worse outcomes.

Thinking about Norman Borlaug–––winner of the Nobel Peace Prize, “Benefactor to Humanity,” and loser (non-finalist!) in my son’s high school heroes contest­­­––– it is incredible and gratifying to think that one person can have such a positive impact on the world.

But it would be folly to set out to have a “Borlaug-sized effect” on the world. As the Talmud famously advises, “You are not obligated to finish the work [i.e., healing the world] but you are not free to desist from it either.”

Meaning we can all make a contribution.

So, as we’re “doom-scrolling” through our news feeds filled with the bad news that sells so well, we should keep in mind that there are multitudes of people working silently, majestically, away from the spotlight, to do their part, big and small, to make the world a better place.

Among the multitudes, I’m betting that there are a few Borlaugs who will come through for us and for the planet.